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Analysis of Trends in VAERS Data
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November 2009: HPV and Flu #4

Flu

I have been tracking Seasonal Flu reports (not H1N1) since August, and they show a Flu season that started early and had more VAERS reports than ever before. November results confirm this. Here is the graph of VAERS reports over the past twenty years of data collection, broken down by the month the Flu vaccine was given:

Once again, there is an alarming red line on the right that shows a terrible month in September 2009. This bar is nearly six times higher than it has ever been during September (2125 reports this year as opposed to the previous high of 356 last year).

Typically, the worst month is October (shown in blue) but this year October is not much worse than September, and is lower than it was last year. Part of this is explained by the fact that October data is not yet completely reported (there are still people who were vaccinated in October and have not yet filed VAERS reports). Another explanation, however, is the rise of H1N1 Flu vaccines which became available in October. It is likely that many people stopped getting Seasonal Flu vaccines in October and switched to H1N1 instead. So it makes sense to combine H1N1 and Seasonal Flu reports into a single graph. Doing this shows that the number of VAERS reports related to Flu vaccines is through the roof, dwarfing all previous years:

Another measure of the severity is the number of deaths reported. As of December 23 (according to CDC Wonder) there have been 36 deaths associated with H1N1 Flu vaccinations and 32 from Seasonal Flu.

HPV

Finally, a continued update on the VAERS reports associated with the HPV vaccines. November had another 247 reports, 4% of the reports for the month. But let's put this 4% figure into perspective by ignoring the Flu reports. If we take the number of reports in November (6267) and subtract the reports that mention Seasonal or H1N1 Flu vaccinations (4971) we have 1296 non-Flu reports. Now the percentage of HPV-related reports is 19% which, unfortunately, is a typical rate for any given month.

Think of all of the vaccinations given and consider how few of them are HPV vaccinations. Then consider that over the past two years since the introduction of the HPV vaccine, about 20% of the VAERS reports have been related to HPV. It's mind-boggling. Not only that, but these reports list 57 women who have died (CDC Wonder is showing 61). Of course, I'm only guessing that all 57 were women, because a breakdown of these reports by gender shows that 50 of them were women and 7 were of "unknown gender".

<< 10/2009: HPV and Flu #3 12/2009: HPV vs. Flu adverse event rates >>


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