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Analysis of Trends in VAERS Data
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August 2009: HPV and Flu #1

This August added 2436 new reports to VAERS, causing the total number of VAERS reports to break the 300K barrier (there are now 300,108 reports).

HPV (Gardasil)

This August, 283 of the 2436 new reports were associated with HPV. Considering the total number of vaccinations administered, and the relatively small proportion of them that are HPV, it might seem unusually high that 12% of the reports are associated with HPV. But in fact, HPV is typically mentioned in 20% of the monthly reports, so August is actually showing improvement.

The total number of HPV-related reports now stands at 16,440. Fortunately, no new deaths were reported this month, leaving the total at 51.


Because the government data lags by a few months, and since the H1N1 Flu vaccine has just come out, there is no data on it at this time. However, Seasonal Flu-related reports are already starting to come in (258 of the 2436 new reports were Flu-related).

It is interesting to look at the cyclic nature of Flu VAERS reports, and I have prepared a graph of it here. The graph shows the number of VAERS reports that are associated with Flu vaccinations, broken down by the month that the vaccine was administered.

Each year VAERS reports associated with Flu peak in October (blue) with fewer cases in September (red) and November (green). Rarely is there any activity in August (cyan) but this August is different. The cyan line on the far right is larger than it has ever been (showing 54 reports for vaccines administered in August). This could be a sign of much larger number of Flu-related reports this year than ever before.

If you are confused about the fact that there were 258 flu-related reports in August but only 54 shown in the graph, the distinction is that the 258 August reports were those that appeared in VAERS during August, whereas the 54 reports in the graph were reports where the vaccine was administered in August.

9/2009: HPV and Flu #2 >>


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